AI驱动的存储芯片短缺冲击印度智能手机市场
英文标题：AI-driven memory crunch jolts India’s smartphone market
人工智能驱动的存储芯片需求激增，正冲击全球第二大智能手机市场印度。2026年第二季度印度智能手机出货量同比下滑10%，为六年来最大六月季度跌幅，主要因内存成本上升推高了手机价格。价格低于150美元的低端机型出货量骤降45%，消费者不得不推迟升级或转向二手市场，而高端品牌受影响较小。这一趋势凸显了AI数据中心建设对消费电子供应链的深远影响，并迫使厂商重新评估市场策略。
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中文
在分析师警告AI驱动的存储芯片需求将波及消费电子数月后，印度正提供最强证据表明这场冲击已经到来，不断上涨的手机价格正在重塑智能手机市场。
上述存储芯片——即RAM和存储组件——正是科技巨头为建设AI数据中心而大量需求的同一种芯片。三星、SK海力士和美光等制造商已将产能转向高带宽内存（HBM），即用于AI加速器的专用芯片，因为每片晶圆的利润远高于手机和笔记本电脑所用的标准内存，从而减少了面向日常消费电子的产能，推高了成本。
根据市场研究公司Counterpoint Research的数据，印度这个按出货量计算仅次于中国的全球第二大智能手机市场，在4月至6月季度智能手机出货量同比下滑10%，创下六年来最大六月季度跌幅，原因是更高的内存成本推高了手机价格。
根据Counterpoint的数据，印度所受到的影响比中国更为明显，中国第二季度智能手机出货量仅下滑2%。该公司研究副总裁塔伦·帕塔克（Tarun Pathak）告诉TechCrunch，印度受冲击更严重的原因是其约60%的智能手机市场集中在2万卢比（约210美元）以下的价位段，而内存成本上涨对该价位段的价格影响最大。
多年来，印度一直是全球智能手机品牌的重要市场。这个南亚国家拥有超过14亿人口和超过7亿智能手机用户，已成为价格敏感市场消费需求的风向标，其购买模式的变化受到设备制造商、芯片供应商以及关注AI供应链整体健康状况的投资者的密切关注。
帕塔克向TechCrunch表示，消费者不太可能完全放弃智能手机。但预计许多人会推迟升级，将换机周期从之前的约3.5年延长至约4年，而苹果和三星等高端品牌受市场放缓的影响相对较小。
这场不均衡的冲击已在重塑智能手机制造商之间的竞争格局。根据Counterpoint的数据，三星是第二季度在印度唯一实现出货量增长的主要智能手机品牌，销量同比增长2%。相比之下，苹果出货量下降了3%，不过这一下滑主要反映的是供应限制和库存短缺限制了苹果可以交付的iPhone数量。
Counterpoint Research高级分析师普拉奇尔·辛格（Prachir Singh）向TechCrunch表示，购买高端智能手机的消费者对价格上涨不那么敏感，分期付款也使昂贵设备变得更加触手可及。
市场低端的痛苦最为剧烈。Counterpoint表示，1.5万卢比（约150美元）以下价位段的出货量同比下降45%。由于中国品牌在入门级和中端智能手机市场占比较高，它们的合计市场份额降至2020年以来第二历年季度最低水平。
更严峻的经济形势也在促发战略调整。本周，中国智能手机品牌一加（OnePlus）表示，在进行谨慎评估后，将停止在欧洲和北美推出新产品，同时维持其印度业务。Counterpoint与TechCrunch分享的数据显示，第一季度一加面向分销商和零售商的全球智能手机出货量中，中国市场占比从去年同期的59%上升至74%，而印度市场的份额则从30%下降至19%。
换句话说，一加正撤退至仍能盈利的市场，并在其他地区让出地盘——随着利润率收紧，这种模式很可能会在其他主打性价比的品牌中重现。
帕塔克确实对TechCrunch表示，运营多个子品牌只有在每个品牌都卖出足够销量以分摊共同成本时才有意义，一旦利润薄到这种程度，这笔账就算不过来了。“子品牌通常存在重叠和共享资源，你需要一个最低基数来证明如此微薄的利润率是合理的。盈利能力是决定市场运作的关键，”他说。
消费者感受到压力
品牌面临的压力直接传导到了购买手机的消费者身上。IDC手机研究副研究总监基兰吉特·考尔（Kiranjeet Kaur）表示，随着更高的零部件成本使低价智能手机变得越来越不划算，印度智能手机市场正从以量驱动的增长转向价值增长——这意味着总体手机销量减少，但每部手机带来的收入更高。
更高的零部件成本已经在向消费者传导。帕塔克表示，印度智能手机价格根据不同型号上涨了4%到68%不等，随着价格上涨，消费者要么转向价格更高的设备，要么推迟升级，要么转向二手市场。
与此同时，考尔告诉TechCrunch，分期付款已成为“负担能力的关键”。她补充说，品牌和零售商也在节日旺季前建立库存，以便在零部件价格进一步上涨之前锁定更低的成本。
考尔还表示，IDC预计印度第二季度智能手机出货量将出现两位数下滑，降幅大于第一季度的4.1%和上一季度的5.3%。不过她指出，该机构的预估数据尚未最终确定。
考尔向TechCrunch表示，存储芯片短缺和智能手机价格上涨的局面可能至少持续到2027年底，不过随着消费者逐渐适应更高的价格成为新常态，价格上涨的步伐应该会放缓。
“对印度消费者而言，这是一记双重打击，因为本币贬值使得进口成本更高，这加剧了市场玩家的利润压力，而他们将成本转嫁给了消费者，”考尔说。
English / 原文
Months after analysts warned that AI-driven demand for memory chips would ripple through consumer electronics, India is providing the strongest evidence yet that the disruption has arrived, with rising handset prices reshaping the smartphone market.
The memory chips in question — RAM and storage components — are the same ones tech giants need by the truckload to build AI data centers. Manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have been shifting production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, the specialized chips used in AI accelerators, because they’re much more profitable per wafer than the standard memory used in phones and laptops — leaving less capacity, and driving up costs, for everyday consumer electronics.
India, the world’s second-largest smartphone market by shipments after China, saw smartphone shipments fall 10% year-over-year in the April-June quarter, according to market research firm Counterpoint Research, marking the steepest June-quarter decline in six years as higher memory costs pushed up handset prices.
The impact has been more pronounced in India than in China, where smartphone shipments fell just 2% in Q2, according to Counterpoint. India has been hit harder because about 60% of its smartphone market is concentrated in the sub-₹20,000 (under $210) segment, where higher memory costs have had the biggest impact on prices, Tarun Pathak, the firm’s vice president of research, told TechCrunch.
India has been a prominent market for global smartphone brands for several years. The South Asian nation, home to more than 1.4 billion people and over 700 million smartphone users, has become a bellwether for consumer demand in price-sensitive markets, making shifts in buying patterns closely watched by device makers, chip suppliers, and investors tracking the broader health of the AI supply chain.
Pathak told TechCrunch that consumers are unlikely to abandon smartphones altogether. However, many of them are expected to delay upgrades, stretching replacement cycles to around four years from about 3.5 years previously, while premium brands such as Apple and Samsung remain better insulated from the slowdown.
The uneven impact is already reshaping competition among smartphone makers. Samsung was the only major smartphone brand to post shipment growth in India in Q2, with volumes rising 2% year-over-year, according to Counterpoint. Apple, by contrast, saw shipments fall 3% — though that dip largely reflected supply constraints and inventory shortages limiting how many iPhones Apple could deliver.
Consumers buying higher-end smartphones have proved less sensitive to price increases, with financing making expensive devices more affordable, Prachir Singh, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told TechCrunch.
The pain has been most acute at the lower end of the market. Shipments in the sub-₹15,000 (under $150) segment fell 45% from a year earlier, Counterpoint said. Because Chinese brands are heavily exposed to entry- and mid-tier smartphones, their combined market share fell to its lowest level for a second calendar quarter since 2020.
The tougher economics are also prompting strategic shifts. This week, Chinese smartphone brand OnePlus said it would stop launching new products in Europe and North America, while maintaining its India business, following what it described as a careful assessment. Counterpoint data shared with TechCrunch showed China accounted for 74% of OnePlus’ global smartphone shipments to distributors and retailers in Q1, up from 59% a year earlier, while India’s share fell to 19% from 30%.
In other words, OnePlus is retreating to markets where it can still turn a profit and ceding ground elsewhere — a pattern likely to repeat across other budget-focused brands as margins tighten.
Indeed, Pathak told TechCrunch that running several sub-brands only makes sense if each one sells enough volume to cover shared costs, and that math stops working once margins get this thin. “Sub-brands normally have overlaps and shared resources, and you need a minimum base to justify the cut-throat margins. Profitability is the key to deciding market operations,” he said.
Consumers feel the squeeze
That pressure on brands is trickling straight down to the people buying their phones. Kiranjeet Kaur, associate research director for mobile phones research at IDC, said the Indian smartphone market is shifting from volume-led growth to value growth — meaning fewer phones are being sold overall, but each one generates more revenue — as higher component costs make lower-priced smartphones increasingly uneconomical.
The higher component costs are already filtering through to consumers. Smartphone prices in India have risen by between 4% and 68%, depending on the model, Pathak said, and as prices rise, consumers are either moving to higher-priced devices, delaying upgrades, or turning to the secondhand market.
Financing has meanwhile become “central to affordability,” Kaur told TechCrunch. She added that brands and retailers were also building inventory ahead of the festive season to lock in lower costs before further increases in component prices.
IDC also expects India’s smartphone shipments to decline by double digits in Q2, a steeper fall than the 4.1% decline in the first quarter and the 5.3% drop in the previous quarter, Kaur said. However, she noted the firm’s estimates were not yet finalized.
Kaur told TechCrunch that memory shortages and elevated smartphone prices were likely to persist until at least the end of 2027, although the pace of price increases should moderate as consumers gradually adjust to higher prices becoming the new normal.
“For Indian consumers, it is a double whammy as the weaker currency makes imports costlier, which has added to margin pressures for the market players, and they are passing on the cost to the consumer,” Kaur said.