ChinAI #367：Claude Code 在中国的未来？

来自一个……的世界问候。

北美英雄联盟并没有缩小差距。

……与往常一样，所有往期内容的可搜索存档请见**这里**。

几周前在浏览“Around the Horn”文章时，有一则故事主导了中国科技媒体的版面：

在 2026 年 4 月发布的 Claude Code 中，Anthropic 悄悄加入了一些旨在识别中国用户的代码。在人们弄清楚发生了什么之后，Anthropic 将此举界定为防范模型蒸馏，并宣布回滚。这一消息曝光后，阿里巴巴发布了一份**内部通知**，要求员工从公司电脑中卸载所有 Claude 软件。

此外，7 月 8 日，中国国家信息安全漏洞库对 Claude Code 中的安全隐患发出了警告。在本周的文章中，我想深入探讨这一事件，并试图理解 Claude Code 在中国的未来。

不过，我们首先需要了解 Claude Code 在中国的过去与现在。Afra Wang 撰写了出色的**Concurrent 通讯，她在 2026 年 1 月访问上海时做了一次温度检查**：

我深入了解了杭州、良渚和上海的科技圈，与数十位从事 AI 开发的开发者见面。一个重大发现是……到目前为止，或许出于一些确认偏误，没有一个开发者使用中国的编程工具。他们全都在用 Claude Code/Antigravity/Codex/Cursor。

在这些工具中，Claude 是被提及频率最高的模型。

好了，那么六个月后的现在，就出现了这场围绕追踪器的风暴，它秘密监控着中国的 Claude Code 用户。顺便一提，ClaudeAI 子版块的**共识认为，这是“Anthropic 对抗中国实验室猖獗的未经授权转售和模型蒸馏的合理手段，尽管有些不正大光明”。请记住，Anthropic 的条款和条件在技术上禁止在中国使用其服务。无论如何，Anthropic 工程师Thariq Shihipar**表示，这是一次实验，将在下一个版本中完全回滚。

于是，阿里巴巴发布了这项内部 Claude 禁令。那么其他所有使用 Claude 的开发者呢？为了进行一次气氛检查，我翻看了知乎上一个相关话题：“阿里巴巴因后门安全风险将全面禁用 Claude Code，这可能引发何种连锁反应？”该话题产生了 160 万次浏览和 315 条回复。我们来看看排在前三位的回答：

1. ginger cat（784 个赞）给出了一个典型的技术民族主义回应：“Claude 做得太过分了。它本质上是第二对中国最不友好的美国公司。没错，TikTok 排第一……”

2. 7 月 3 日，Morgan [程墨]（1472 个赞）撰写了一篇引人入胜的见解，似乎基于大量行业内部消息：

阿里巴巴开创了先例。

中国各大科技公司的 CTO 们将在这个周末为这个问题伤脑筋。因为到了周一早上，肯定有人会在员工大会上问：“阿里巴巴禁用了，我们要不要禁？”

长期以来，大科技公司对 Claude Code 的态度基本上是“偷偷用”。尽管他们口头上强调安全和合规，但行动不会说谎。谁不知道 Claude Code 被誉为全球最强大的编程助手？谁不想让程序员的生产力翻倍？然而，这些公司无法正式采购 Claude Code；Anthropic 对中国怀有敌意；而且，中国企业根本无法直接购买。

实际操作中，流程是：公司置身事外，由员工自行处理，使用个人订阅、中介、让朋友代付——各显神通。

公司会睁一只眼闭一只眼，甚至报销费用。现在，Anthropic 捅破了这层窗户纸。

事实上，中国的科技巨头们一直都知道 Anthropic 有办法检测中国用户——不然他们怎么能如此精准地封禁账号……谁能想到 Anthropic 竟然在客户端里直接嵌入了后门？……现在，大科技公司再也不能无所作为了。

我预测，到下周一时，中国所有主流科技公司都将发布 Claude Code 禁令……不过，格局已经变了，国产模型的编程能力正取得长足进步……阿里巴巴已将内部的“通义灵码（Qoder）”作为替代品推广；字节跳动有 MarsCode；腾讯有 Code Buddy；百度有 Comate……然而，这些工具长期以来面临一个尴尬现实：公司自家的程序员很少使用它们……情况已变——Claude Code 被禁，你别无选择，只能用内部工具。任何工具只要拥有足够大的用户群并持续获得反馈，就必然会改进。

此举标志着中国大科技公司与 Anthropic 的脱钩；未来，它们将不再寄希望于 Claude Code。

所有人都在各自为战，把最终胜负交给市场决定。

3. 知乎用户 [匿名]（691 个赞）：这里讲一个说明相反情况的故事：阿里巴巴的组件库 Ant Design 曾在未通知用户的情况下插入了一个圣诞“彩蛋”。当系统检测到日期为 12 月 25 日时，默认按钮样式会变成积雪外观，替代文本（主要影响辅助读屏工具）会变成圣诞老人的笑声。此事引发了对 Ant Design 和阿里的猛烈抨击；许多用户将其称为“后门”，一些大科技公司甚至要求员工迁移到其他框架。如果一家公司能容忍 Anthropic 在这里采取的这种做法，那才真是奇怪。

我觉得 Morgan 的回应最有意思，但也过于夸张了。与那位答主的预测相反，中国的科技公司并未全都内部禁用 Claude Code。值得注意的是，如果你阅读前述中国国家信息安全漏洞库的警告，它甚至建议用户“卸载受影响版本，或者升级到已移除相关后门代码的最新安全版本”。这个漏洞库认识到了开发者可能并不那么愿意放弃 Claude Code。

归根结底，本周大问题的答案将取决于中国 AI 编程助手的能力。从一项指标来看，阿里巴巴的通义灵码似乎处于领先地位。根据最近的一份 IDC 报告，它在中国 AI 编程市场中占有 47.6% 的份额。链接中的**雷锋网分析**提供了更多关于阿里巴巴为何能占领如此多市场的细节。然而，尽管我尚未找到完整 IDC 报告的方法论，但我猜测其数据来自企业调查，这反映了纸面上的采用情况，而不一定是实际使用情况（个别员工会使用 Claude Code 而非公司提供的工具）。

在这一切之后，我的结论是：Claude Code 在中国的未来……阴云密布。迅速脱钩听起来总是很容易——下周一前就会发生！——但放手从来没那么简单。

这些是 Jeff Ding 不定期翻译的中文 AI 相关思考。Jeff 是乔治·华盛顿大学政治学助理教授。

如有建议或反馈？请发邮件至 chinainewsletter@gmail.com 或通过 Twitter 联系 @jjding99。

Greetings from a world where…

North American league of legends is not closing the gap

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When scanning for Around the Horn articles a few weeks back, one story dominated the Chinese tech media landscape:

In the April 2026 release of Claude Code, Anthropic quietly added some code aimed at identifying Chinese users. After people figured out what was happening, Anthropic framed the move as an effort to guard against distillation and announced a rollback. In the wake of this revelation, Alibaba has issued an**internal mandate** to remove all Claude software from employee computers.

Additionally, on July 8, China’s National Vulnerability Database warned about a security backdoor risk in Claude Code. In this week’s issue, I wanted to get deeper into this story and try to understand the future of Claude Code in China.

To start, however, we need to understand the past and present of Claude Code in China. Afra Wang, who writes the excellent Concurrent newsletter , provided a temperature check in January 2026 when she visited Shanghai:

I’ve been deep in the tech scene across hangzhou, liangzhu, and shanghai, meeting a few dozens of devs who are working on ai. a big revelation is…so far, probably due to some confirmation bias, not a single one is using Chinese coding tools.they’re all on Claude Code/Antigravity/Codex/Cursor.

Of these tools, Claude was the most frequently mentioned model.

Okay, so six months later, now, there’s this firestorm over a tracker that secretly monitors Claude Code users in China. By the way, the ClaudeAI subreddit consensus sees this as a “reasonable, if sneaky, way for Anthropic to combat the rampant unauthorized resale and model distillation by Chinese labs.” Remember, Anthropic’s terms and conditions technically prohibit the use of its services in China. In any case, Anthropic engineer Thariq Shihipar stated that this was an experiment that would be fully rolled back in the next release.

So, Alibaba issues this internal Claude ban. What about all other coders who use Claude? To conduct a vibe check, I turned to a Zhihu thread on this topic: “Alibaba is set to completely ban Claude Code due to backdoor security risks; what kind of ripple effects might this trigger?” This thread has generated 1.6 million views and 315 responses. Let’s go through the top three responses:

1. gingercat (784 upvotes) gives a typical technonationalist responses: “Claude is going overboard. It is essentially the U.S. company that is second most unfriendly to China. That’s right, TikTok is number one…”

2. On July 3, Morgan [程墨] (1472 upvotes) penned a fascinating take, seemingly based on a lot of insider industry knowledge:

Alibaba has set a precedent.

CTOs at major tech companies across China will be grappling with this issue over the weekend. Because on Monday morning, someone is bound to ask at the staff meeting: “Alibaba has banned it, should we?”

For a long time, the attitude of big tech firms toward Claude Code was essentially “secretly use it.” While they paid lip service to security and compliance, actions don’t lie. Who doesn’t know that Claude Code is touted as the world’s most powerful coding assistant? Who wouldn’t want to double their programmers’ productivity? Yet, these companies couldn’t officially procure Claude Code; Anthropic is hostile toward China; plus, Chinese firms simply cannot purchase it directly.

In actual practice, the procedure is: The company stays out of it, leaving employees to handle it themselves, using personal subscriptions, intermediaries, having friends pay on their behalf — each finding their own creative solution.

Companies would turn a blind eye, or even reimburse the costs. Now, Anthropic has blown the lid off this arrangement.

In truth, Chinese big tech firms knew all along that Anthropic had ways to detect Chinese users—how else could they ban accounts with such pinpoint accuracy…Who could have imagined that Anthropic had actually embedded a backdoor directly into the client?…Now, major tech firms can no longer afford to do nothing.

I predict that, by next Monday, all mainstream tech companies in China will issue a ban on Claude Code …the landscape has shifted, however, as domestic models are now making significant strides in coding capabilities…Alibaba has promoted its in-house “Qoder” as an alternative; ByteDance has MarsCode; Tencent has Code Buddy; and Baidu has Comate…Yet, these tools have long faced an awkward reality: the companies’ own programmers rarely use them…the situation has changed—Claude Code is banned, so you have no choice but to use the internal tools. Any tool will inevitably improve if it has a sufficient user base and receives continuous feedback.

This move represents a decoupling from Anthropic by China’s major tech firms; in the future, they will no longer hope for Claude Code.

Everyone is striking out on their own, leaving the market to ultimately decide the winners and losers.

3. Zhihu user [anonymous] (691 upvotes): Here is a story illustrating the reverse scenario: Alibaba’s component library, Ant Design, once inserted a Christmas “Easter egg” without notifying users. When the system detected the date as December 25th, it would change the default button style to a snow-covered look, and the alt text (which primarily affects assistive screen readers) would change to the sound of Santa Claus laughing. This incident drew a storm of fierce criticism against Ant Design and Alibaba; many users labeled it a “backdoor,” and some major tech companies even required their employees to migrate to other frameworks. It would be truly bizarre if a company were to tolerate the kind of approach Anthropic is taking here.

I thought Morgan’s response was the most interesting but also overblown. Contrary to that poster’s prediction, Chinese tech firms have not all internally banned Claude Code. Notably, if you read the aforementioned Chinese government’s National Vulnerability Database warning, it even advises users to “uninstall the affected versions **or upgrade to the latest secure version in which the relevant backdoor code has been removed.” **This vulnerability database recognizes that developers might not be so willing to give up on Claude Code.

Ultimately, the answer to this week’s big question will depend on the capabilities of Chinese AI coding assistants. By one metric, Alibaba’s Qoder appears to be leading the way. According to a recent IDC report, it holds 47.6% of the Chinese AI coding market. The linked Leiphone analysis provides more details about why Alibaba has captured so much of the market. However, though I haven’t been able to find the methodology of the full IDC report, I would guess that they get their data from company surveys, which reflects on-paper adoption, not necessarily actual usage (individual employees just use Claude Code instead of the company-provided tool).

After all that, I conclude that the Claude Code’s future in China is…cloudy. A swift decoupling always sounds easy — it’ll always happen by next Monday! — but it’s never that easy to let go.

These are Jeff Ding’s (sometimes) weekly translations of Chinese-language musings on AI and related topics. Jeff is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University.

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