Microsoft 披露文件显示：其约 70% 的 AI 收入来自 OpenAI

Microsoft 股票在过去一周因 AI 业务增长加速而上涨，但关键往往藏在细节之中。

过去一个月，微软股价在季度财报披露后飙升近 30%，业绩显著超过华尔街预期。微软证明其 AI 业务正在加速增长，而且尽管公司大举投入建设新数据中心，现金流依然健康。不过，新的信息表明，这个消息背后仍存在一个巨大的但书。

来自 Bloomberg 的分析给微软 AI 业务的盈利潜力泼了一盆冷水。微软披露的信息显示，基于增长预测以及此前与 OpenAI 贡献收入相关的披露，OpenAI 约占微软 AI 相关总收入的 70%。

微软表示，Copilot 在 Microsoft 365 中拥有数百万付费席位，并正逐步被各类政府、公共部门及私营企业采用。但若将这些数据与此前披露的信息合并计算，会发现仅 OpenAI 的 GPU 与基础设施消耗，仍驱动着微软 AI 业务总量的 65% 至 70%。训练 ChatGPT 等平台，以及单纯向客户提供其服务，仍是微软 AI 业务的基石。这可能构成问题，并伴随着巨大的风险。

Azure 已让微软成为不容忽视的巨头，但我认为，其 AI 押注仍可能威胁这一地位。（图片来源：Getty Images | NurPhoto）

在游戏业务方面，Call of Duty 表现不佳的一年，就足以令 Xbox 总收入下降 11%，并引发大规模裁员。相比之下，据估计，OpenAI 每年亏损约 100 亿至 200 亿美元，而其收入仅约为 20 亿至 50 亿美元。如今，OpenAI 背后有大批投资者维持其运营，而微软本身仍是 OpenAI 最大的支持者之一，通过现金、基础设施、算力额度及其他工具投入了数十亿美元。表面上看，微软的 AI 预订收入，实际上只是将 OpenAI 的算力账单打包成收入。

这在商业领域并非史无前例。Spotify 曾多年亏损，最终实现盈利——而且是数十亿美元规模的盈利。其理念是：通过债务支撑快速扩张，改变用户行为并创造新市场；然后锁定用户，让他们形成依赖，再开始变现。微软及 OpenAI 的其他债权人押注的是：有一天，ChatGPT 将成为默认选择——成为数十亿人计算生活中无法回避的基石。

但如果这一切没有发生呢？

如果人们最终选择 Claude 或 Gemini，而不是 ChatGPT，会怎样？如果监管审查或公众舆论进一步恶化，会怎样？如果竞选获胜的承诺变成阻止建设新数据中心、而非推动其建设，又会怎样？

公众对 AI 的看法依然极其负面，原因包括数据中心对社区造成的损害，以及对艺术和人类创作内容的窃取与破坏。（图片来源：Alex Hirsch，X（Twitter））

这些披露信息表明，微软的 AI 增长并非自然形成，而几乎完全围绕 ChatGPT 模型训练展开。如果 OpenAI 崩溃或增速放缓，微软将不得不承担数十亿美元的沉没成本，以及大规模过剩的数据中心产能。

目前没有任何迹象表明增长正在放缓，恰恰相反——这也是股价大涨的原因。但同样也几乎没有理由相信，这整个业务板块哪怕在一定程度上是自然增长形成的。

微软已经开始尝试分散风险：一方面训练自有、效率“更高”的 MAI 模型以服务消费者应用，另一方面提升外部企业的采用率。随着对传统消费者业务的忽视变得难以维持，公司也开始将更多注意力投入 Xbox 和 Windows 等业务。但如果所谓的“AI 泡沫”真的彻底破裂，这些措施都无法拯救微软或其股东。

值得关注的是，CEO Satya Nadella 将如何带领微软穿越这个某种程度上前所未有的时代。

Microsoft's stocks rallied this past week on accelerating AI growth, but the devil is always in the details.

Over the past month, Microsoft's shares have surged almost 30% following its quarterly filings, which beat Wall Street estimates by a significant margin. Microsoft proved that its AI business is accelerating in growth, and that cash flows remain healthy despite the firm's extensive capital expenditure on new data centers. However, new information suggests that there's still an enormous caveat to this news.

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Analysis from Bloomberg has poured cold water over Microsoft's AI earnings potential. Disclosures from Microsoft suggest that OpenAI accounts for around 70% of Microsoft's total AI-related income, based on projected growth and previous disclosures that relate to revenue derived from OpenAI.

Microsoft reported that Copilot has millions of paid seats in Microsoft 365, and is being gradually adopted by a wide variety of governmental, public, and private sector businesses. But when you tally it against previous disclosures, it shows that GPU and infrastructure consumption specifically from OpenAI still drives between 65 to 70% of Microsoft's total AI business. Training platforms like ChatGPT and simply serving it to customers remains the cornerstone of Microsoft's AI business. That's potentially problematic and comes with a huge amount of risk.

Azure has turned Microsoft into an absolute powerhouse, but I would argue its AI bets still threaten that. (Image credit: Getty Images | NurPhoto)

On the gaming side, Call of Duty having an off year was enough to drive Xbox's total revenue down by 11%, leading to masses of layoffs. OpenAI, by comparison, is estimated to be losing anywhere between 10 and 20 billion dollars per year, on a comparatively modest $2-5 billion in revenue. OpenAI has a mountain of investors keeping it afloat right now, and Microsoft itself remains one of OpenAI's biggest backers, investing to the tune of billions in cash, infra, compute credits, and other instruments. On the face of it, Microsoft's AI bookings simply represent OpenAI's compute bill packaged as revenue.

It's not unheard of in business. Spotify ran losses for years until eventually becoming profitable (to the tune of billions, I might add). The idea is that you burn through debt, scale rapidly, change user behavior, and create new markets. Then, you lock people in and make them dependent, and start monetizing. Microsoft and OpenAI's other creditors are betting that one day, ChatGPT will become the default — an inescapable cornerstone of computing for billions of people.

But what if that doesn't happen?

What if people end up choosing Claude or Gemini over ChatGPT? What if regulatory scrutiny or public opinion sours ever further? What if elections are won on the promise of blocking new data centers, rather than enabling them?

Public perception of AI remains incredibly negative, owing to the damage data centers cause in communities, and the theft and destruction of art and human-created content. (Image credit: Alex Hirsch on X (Twitter))

The disclosures suggest that Microsoft's AI growth is inorganic and revolves almost entirely around training ChatGPT's models. If OpenAI imploded or decelerated, Microsoft would be on the hook for billions in sunk cost and enormous amounts of excess data center capacity.

There's no suggestion of a deceleration, quite the opposite — which is why the stock price has surged. But there's also little reason to believe that this entire segment is even vaguely organic.

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Microsoft is already trying to diversify by training its own "more efficient" MAI models for consumer applications while boosting external enterprise adoption. It's started to devote more attention to its legacy consumer businesses too, namely Xbox and Windows, as neglect therein becomes untenable. But none of this will save Microsoft or its shareholders if the so-called "AI bubble" well and truly does pop.

It'll be interesting to watch how CEO Satya Nadella navigates Microsoft through this somewhat unprecedented era.

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