RAM 价格回升至 2007 年常态水平

软件性能专家、科学家兼 GitHub 开发者 Daniel Lemire 对历史计算机内存价格进行了比较，指出由于 HBM 的巨大需求，数十年来不断下降的价格趋势在短短数月内被逆转。根据他在 X 上发布的内容，这一事件属于历史异常；他想不出还有哪一次技术硬件价格曾回升到数十年前的水平。

“按单位计算，RAM 的价格大致和 2007 年时一样贵，”Lemire 表示。他还补充说：“我认为没有人能预测接下来会发生什么，但我猜测，要么我们找到一种不需要如此大量内存来构建 AI 系统的方法，要么我们找到极其聪明的办法，以快得多的速度制造更多内存。”

我们还查阅了 David Shim 为 Stanford DAM Project 汇编并维护的第三方数据。DDR5 内存的最新价格为每 GB 13.28 至 11.41 美元——上一次 RAM 达到这一价格区间是在 2008 年，当时 DDR2 的价格约为每 GB 15 至 11.00 美元。不过，这些数据基于名义美元价值。如果计入 2024 年通胀，当前 DDR5 的价格为每 GB 12.74 至 10.94 美元；上一次达到这一水平是在 2011 年，当时 DDR3 的价格为每 GB 11.85 美元。

技术进步，尤其是制造和微型化领域的进步，意味着科技产品会随着时间推移而变得更便宜。自 80 年前 第一台通用数字计算机 问世以来，这一直是事实。ENIAC 在 1946 年让政府花费了 40 万美元，这意味着其今天的成本可能约为 6,850,297.44 美元。然而，它的计算能力大致只相当于每秒进行 5,000 次加法运算。相比之下，如今最便宜的智能手机之一——正在以 99.99 美元销售的 Moto G Play——搭载了 Snapdragon 680 处理器，AI 性能为 3.3 TOPS，即每秒 3.3 万亿次操作。我们确实无法将 ENIAC 与现代处理器直接比较，但这至少展示了技术进步和价格下降的巨大尺度。

近期内存价格的大幅上涨并非由技术倒退或供应瓶颈造成，而是源于 AI 竞赛推动的 HBM 巨大需求。“内存产量每年大约增长 20%。通常而言，对于任何大型、成熟的行业来说，这都会是极其快、极其惊人的增长速度；但请问问自己，‘需求每年增长 20% 吗？’”Elon Musk 在最近一次 SpaceX 财报电话会议中表示，“不，需求每年增长 200%，甚至可能更高。”

其他专家和行业领袖也同意 Musk 的观点。拥有存储芯片制造商 SK hynix 的 SK Group 董事长表示，RAM 价格“异常高”，行业必须采取措施增加供应并降低价格。即使是采用中国制造商 CXMT 芯片的 RAM——一些人将其视为更便宜的替代品——其价格也 通常跟随采用三大厂商芯片的内存模组（Micron、Samsung 和 SK hynix）的价格走势。

除计算机外，其他行业已经开始受到短缺影响，包括 显卡、智能手机、游戏主机，甚至 汽车。我们不知道当前的内存危机将持续多久，但这一局面不可持续，而且“必须有所改变。”令人担忧的是，没有人知道一旦那一刻到来，会发生什么。

Software performance expert, scientist, and GitHub developer Daniel Lemire compared historical computer memory prices and showed that decades of falling prices were undone in just a matter of months because of the massive demand for HBM. According to his X post, this event is a historical anomaly, and he cannot think of an instance where technology hardware prices reverted to levels from decades before.

“RAM on a per unit basis is about as expensive as it was in 2007,” Lemire said. He also added, “I do not think anyone can predict what will happen, but I am guessing that we either find a way to build AI systems without so much memory, or we find really clever ways to make much more memory much faster.”

We also checked third-party data compiled and maintained by David Shim for the Stanford DAM Project. The latest price for DDR5 memory sits between $13.28 and $11.41 per GB — the last time RAM hit this price was in 2008, when the price for DDR2 hovered by $15 and 11.00 per GB. These are based on nominal USD values, though. If we take 2024 inflation into account, the current amount for DD5 is between $12.74 and $10.94 per GB, which was last achieved in 2011, when DDR3 prices were at $11.85 per GB.

Latest Videos FromTom's Hardware

(Image credit: Stanford)

Technological advances, especially in manufacturing and miniaturization, meant that tech became cheaper over time. This has been true ever since the first general-purpose digital computer was created 80 years ago. ENIAC cost the government $400,000 in 1946, meaning it would probably cost around $6,850,297.44 today. However, its computing power equaled roughly 5,000 additions per second — by comparison, one of the cheapest smartphones you can get today, the Moto G Play, is on sale for $99.99. This smartphone is powered by a Snapdragon 680 processor with AI performance of 3.3 TOPS — that is 3.3 trillion operations per second. We can’t really compare the ENIAC to a modern processor, but it at least shows us the scale by which technology has advanced, and prices have dropped.

The massive increase in memory prices in recent times wasn’t caused by technological regression or a bottleneck in supply — instead, it’s the massive demand for HBM driven by the AI race. “The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now, normally, that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry, but ask yourself, ‘Is the demand increasing by 20% a year?” Elon Musk said during the last SpaceX earnings call. “No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher.”

Other experts and industry leaders agree with Musk. The chairman of the SK Group, the holding company that owns memory chip manufacturer SK hynix, said that RAM prices are “abnormally high,” and that the industry must take steps to increase supply and lower prices. Even RAM that uses chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT, which some people look to as a cheaper alternative, generally tracked the prices of modules that use chips from the big three (Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix).

Aside from computers, other industries are already being affected by the shortage, including graphics cards, smartphones, gaming consoles, and even automobiles. We do not know how long the current memory crisis will last, but the situation is unsustainable and “ something has to give.” The scary thing is that nobody knows what would happen if and when that time comes.

Get Tom's Hardware's best news and in-depth reviews, straight to your inbox.

Follow Tom's Hardware on Google News , or add us as a preferred source , to get our latest news, analysis, & reviews in your feeds.