Anthropic、OpenAI与SpaceX体量超过科技行业过去25年退出总和

我们之前讨论过这个火热的IPO夏季，但随着SpaceX刚刚登陆公开市场以及Anthropic和（可能）OpenAI即将到来，人们很容易忽视正在发生的巨大规模。

周三发布的NCVA-Pitchbook Venture Monitor报告再次提醒了我们这一点。毫不意外，私人市场的所有资金都在涌向AI——但有一个数字格外突出。在评估即将到来的OpenAI和Anthropic IPO时，报告抛出了这个惊人发现：“加上SpaceX的IPO，这些退出将创造比2000年以来美国所有风投支持退出总和更多的价值。”

这是一个相当大胆的说法，当你把数字加起来时，很难不同意。SpaceX已经以1.77万亿美元估值上市，而Anthropic和OpenAI都在迈向万亿级别，这三家公司加起来的估值可能超过4万亿美元。相比之下，美国证券交易委员会统计去年美国IPO募资总额仅为700亿美元。

细心的读者会注意到表述中的几个限定条件。它不包括像阿里巴巴这样的非美国公司，而且我们衡量的是“创造的价值”而非严格的流动现金。许多重大技术发展发生在已经上市的公司（iPhone、Android的推出以及YouTube和Instagram的上线），因此它们不会体现在IPO数据中。

尽管如此……这25年确实相当精彩。在此期间，Google（2004年）、Tesla（2010年）和Meta（2012年）等进行了IPO，如今它们已成为全球最有价值的公司之一。同一时期，LinkedIn、Slack和WhatsApp分别以超过200亿美元被收购。Uber在2019年840亿美元的IPO当时看起来是一大笔钱，但还不到SpaceX刚刚募资金额的5%。

其中一个因素是公司保持私有状态的时间更长了。今天的Google可能会推迟IPO，并以更高的估值上市。另一个因素是AI训练的资本密集性质，这推动实验室进行密集的融资并推高了估值。但即便如此，这些公开发行的规模仍远远超出该行业以往的任何成就，并且已经在把金融基础设施推向极限。

We’ve talked before about the hot IPO summer, but with SpaceX just launched to public markets and Anthropic and (maybe) OpenAI soon to come, it can be easy to miss the sheer scale of what’s happening.

We got a good reminder of it in Wednesday’s NCVA-Pitchbook Venture Monitor report. Not surprisingly, all of the money in private markets is flooding into AI — but one particular figure stood out. Taking the measure of the pending OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, the report drops this nugget: “Along with the SpaceX IPO, these exits will generate more value than all U.S. VC-backed exits since 2000.”

That’s quite a claim, and when you add up the numbers, it’s hard to disagree. SpaceX has already gone public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, and with both Anthropic and OpenAI pushing into the trillions it’s likely the trio together will land somewhere north of $4 trillion. By comparison, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission counted just $70 billion in U.S.-based IPO proceeds last year.

Careful readers will notice a few caveats in the language. It doesn’t include non-U.S. companies like Alibaba, and we’re measuring “value created” as opposed to strictly liquid cash. A lot of the major tech developments happened at companies that had already gone public (the iPhone, the debut of Android, and the launches of YouTube and Instagram), so they wouldn’t be captured in the IPO figures.

Still… that was a pretty eventful 25 years. Among other things, that period saw IPOs from Google (2004), Tesla (2010), and Meta (2012), which are now among the most valuable companies in the world. During the same period, LinkedIn, Slack, and WhatsApp were all acquired for more than $20 billion. Uber’s $84 billion IPO seemed like a lot of money in 2019, but it’s less than 5% of what SpaceX just drummed up.

One factor here is that companies are staying private for longer. The Google of today probably would have delayed its IPO and gone public at a higher number. Another factor is the capital-intensive nature of AI training, which has pushed labs into intense fundraising and inflated valuations. But the sheer scale of the public offerings is still way beyond anything the industry has ever done, and is already pushing the financial infrastructure to its limit.